The OECD’s interim Economic Outlook for September 2025 offers reason for cautious optimism: many economies are outperforming expectations, and global growth forecasts have been revised upward as a result.
Global GDP is projected to grow 3.2% in 2025, up from 2.9%, while 2026’s growth remains forecast at 2.9%, reflecting an anticipated slowdown as inventory build-ups fade and trade frictions intensify. The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, before easing to 1.5% in 2026.
China remains among the stronger performers with nearly 4.9% growth, though its momentum is projected to slow. Europe’s growth is more modest, constrained by energy issues, inflation, and tighter fiscal policy in some member nations.
The OECD draws attention to several risk factors: the rising cost of trade barriers (including U.S. tariffs at levels not seen for decades), inflationary pressures, and possible volatility in investment and financial markets. A decline in consumer confidence or disruptions in global supply chains could also weigh.
In policy circles, the report suggests that central banks may have some room to ease rates, especially as inflation gradually moderates. But the equilibrium will be delicate: too much stimulus could reignite inflation; too aggressive tightening could stall recovery.
