China’s manufacturing heartlands are bearing the brunt of the economic slowdown, with:
• Guangdong exports down 18% YoY
• Zhejiang factory utilization at 63% (10-yr low)
• Jiangsu seeing first labor outflows since 2003
“The export model that built modern China is broken,” said HSBC’s Jing Liu.
Pain points:
✓ 37% of Dongguan factories operating at loss
✓ Shenzhen vacancy rates hit 24%
✓ Shanghai port volumes drop 12%
Emerging bright spots:
→ Chongqing’s EV cluster grows 42%
→ Xi’an chip investment up $7B
→ Hainan tourism recovers to 2019 levels
