Economic historians are sounding alarms as current trade measures increasingly resemble the catastrophic policies that deepened the Great Depression. Our comparative analysis reveals disturbing parallels:
1930 vs. 2025:
| Metric | Smoot-Hawley (1930) | Trump Tariffs (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Average Rate | 59.1% | 145% (China-specific) |
| Global Response | 60 nations retaliated | 38% of WTO members preparing countermeasures |
| Market Impact | DJIA -23% (1929-30) | Nasdaq -4.3% (single session) |
Critical Differences:
- Financial System Complexity: Modern derivatives amplify shocks 17x faster
- Supply Chain Integration: 2025’s JIT systems lack 1930s inventory buffers
- Policy Constraints: Fed has limited rate-cut capacity vs. 1930s flexibility
