While TSMC shares rose 4% post-earnings, options data reveals growing investor unease:
• Put/call ratio hits 1.3 (highest since 2020)
• Short interest up 18% in April
• 2026 P/E multiple compressed to 14x from 18x
“These numbers are stellar, but the risk premium has changed,” said Morgan Stanley’s Charlie Chan. Key concerns:
✓ 25% of revenue exposed to U.S. policy shifts
✓ $28B Arizona investment uncertainty
✓ 12% EPS downside in tariff scenario
Bull vs Bear Cases:
→ Bulls: 40% free cash flow yield, AI dominance
→ Bears: Geopolitical overhang, inventory buildup
